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Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking
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By Paul J. H. Schoemaker
Winter 1995
Reprint 3622
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Volume 36, Number 2, pages 25-40, 16 pages
Primary Topic: Corporate Strategy
SummaryAmong the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a whole range of possibilities in rich detail. By identifying basic trends and uncertainties, a manager can construct a series of scenarios what will help to compensate for the usual errors in decision making -- overconfidence and tunnel vision. Through case studies of Interpublic, an international advertising agency, and Anglo-American Corporation in South Africa, the author describes how to build scenarios in a step-by-step process and how to use the resulting stories to plan a company's future. |
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